Election day came after months of anticipation. Coming off the heels of a 2020 election that saw the largest voter turnout in American history, some have pegged this as the biggest election in history.

I spent the day scouting out the polls and getting reactions from voters. After polls are closed I watched into the late hours of the night as results come in.

I tracked ages 18-29 vote (Generation Z) as well as the college-educated vote. Although these demographics aren’t exclusive to students like at SAU, they are heavily influenced by students enrolled at universities around the country. Many of whom are voting in their very first presidential election.

You’d have to go back to 1988 the last time the 18 to 29 aged demographic favored Republicans. This was when George H.W. Bush won the presidency over Michael Dukakis in a landslide. 

Since then young voters have favored Democrats. It was a narrow decision for the demographic in the 2000 election, one of the closest elections in history. Every election since has seen a decisive result in Democrats favor, those numbers according to Pew Research.

Since 1980, the college educated vote has also trended Democrat. What’s important to note is the racial divide within this demographic. Non-white, college educated voters have always overwhelmingly voted Democrat. 

However in the last two elections white college educated voters saw a huge swing from a 10 point favoring of Republicans all the way to a two point favoring of Democrats, according to The Center for Politics. Given that Donald Trump has remained the candidate over the course of this massive voter swing, it will be interesting to see if these numbers continue their trajectory during this election.

Election Day Live Blog

10:15 AM — Mostly non-student voters right now. Most of the people in line are 50 and older. Not surprising given the time of day. Student voting seems to be pretty split male and female so far.

10:45 — “A lot of my views correspond with my faith. One of the big ones was [abortion]. I mainly voted for those that had a [pro-life] view and had respect for all life,” commented a SAU male undergrad.

“Mine is exactly the same. I voted for those that aligned with my pro-life stance,” a female undergrad added.

11:14 — “I’m going into healthcare, so that’s a big topic I look into,” commented a female grad student.

11:17 — “The economy was the biggest thing that brought me out to vote. I want to be able to buy a home after college. The border and keeping US citizens safe was another,” an SAU male sophomore commented.

11:40 AM  — Polls have slowed down a ton right before the lunch hour. Saw a small wave at around 11:15 AM as 10 AM classes began to dismiss. Lines are basically empty right now however.

12:15 PM — “I think the biggest issues were the economy and abortion rights. I like what Kamala Harris said about the economy and promising mortgage assistance for first-time homebuyers, a tax credit for parents of newborns, and banning price gouging at the grocery story to help target inflation.

“[On the issue of abortion], I feel every women should have a [choice on what to do with their bodies]. I really thought about my Mom, sisters, and other female friends just knowing they shouldn’t be told what to do with their own bodies,” detailed a junior male.

12:26 PM — “I wanted to make a difference in the best way I could. It has to start somewhere. I feel like a lot of times people will say they’re frustrated but then not do anything about it, and voting for me is a way to do something about it,” said a female undergrad.

12:30 PM — Voting hasn’t seemed to pick up at all over the noon hour. Some students have filtered in but it remains mostly non-student voters at the moment. Male and female turnout appears to be even.

12:51 PM — “There was really no particular issue that made me come out to vote. It was more my family, they were really pressuring me to vote being an African-American. My grandparents would tell me about back in the day when their parents would take them to vote back [when black Americans didn’t have as much access to voting]. So they just expressed how important it was for me to vote because some of my family members in the past didn’t have the ability to,” detailed a black junior male voter.

3:35 PM — Just returned from class back to the polls. Things are starting to slowly pick up as people make their way from work and class to the polls. Student turnout seems to have picked up.

3:53 PM — “Seeing how Trump handled different situations, he didn’t take it very seriously. I saw there was hope with Kamala, and that’s why I registered to vote,” commented another female undergrad.

4:05 PM — The line to vote remains short but consistent. Voters are very dispersed right now. Male and female student voter totals remain pretty balanced.

4:49 PM — Things remain at a pretty consistent pace right now with a mix of student and non-student voters. I’m guessing we won’t see much of an increase in student voting from this point, but we should see a healthy amount of non-students as we move past the five PM hour.

5:07 PM — “There was a couple of issues [that were concerning to me]. My right to my own body was one, and I also felt like freedom and democracy [were at stake]. Just comparing how both candidates talk about each other and other people, I just owed it to myself to vote,” described a senior female student.

5:36 PM — As expected, student voting has slowed to a crawl. There is a wave of student athletes who could make their way in here late, but wouldn’t expect high numbers from that crowd. Non-student voters have remained consistent, as expected.

5:49 PM — I stand slightly corrected. Getting a wave of student voters rolling in right now. Nothing overwhelming in terms of total numbers, but pretty much everyone in line at this moment are students, and most of which appear to be female students. This is only the second time today where there has been a notable majority of female and male students. University numbers show the university has nine percent more females than males, so neutral voting rates between both sexes should see more women showing up.

6:04 PM — Looks like the wave of students was short lived. Line has returned back to mostly non-students. Student-athletes should be getting out of practice very shortly, so we will see if that brings in another small wave of student voters.

6:07 PM — “The biggest reason I did it was because I felt pressure from my friends and family. I was just out to eat with my uncle and he asked if I had voted yet. He told me I should because it’s my ‘civic duty’. I don’t really have strong political beliefs,” said a male undergrad.

6:33 PM — Things have remained slow, only a student or two at a time at this point. With voting open for another hour and a half and results starting to come in in other states, it looks like things are wound down from the Rogalski Center.

6:41 PM — Speaking of results: Looks like Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia have been called for Trump. New Hampshire has been called for Harris. All of these according to CNN, Associated Press, and New York Times.

7:03 PM — New wave of polls just closed in other states. CNN and New York Times have called a lot of states for both candidates. Still no flips from 2020. All states that haven’t been called are too early to get a full picture yet.

8:00 PM — Polls are officially closed in the state of Iowa. It seems just from observing that voting numbers have been pretty balanced amongst demographics. Female and Male voters appear to be just about dead even. The student body is about nine points more female than male. Without the exact numbers it’s hard to give a proper analysis, but it seems the rate of females and males voting appears to be pretty even, if not a slightly better turnout for male voters.

SAU is a predominantly white institute (PWI), so it should be expected that white voters should far outnumber minority voters. However there was still a fairly strong turnout of minority voters, to the point that I would say minority voters had a better turnout rate than white voters amongst SAU students.

Overall student turnout also seemed to be pretty good once again. I don’t think it will be quite the record turnout that the 2020 election was, but it will be close to it. 

Of course these are just estimates. Specific polling information will not be available, so unfortunately these cannot be confirmed or denied. However as the night goes on we will hopefully have some national numbers to compare them with.

The waiting game now begins…

8:23 PM — No official state flips yet. Trump currently stands at just over two million votes while Harris sits at 1.8 million in the state of Georgia. For reference, each candidate finished with roughly 2.4 million votes in 2020. There are a lot of swing counties in the state still to report. This one looks like it will be close once again.

8:34 PM — An early look at some exit polls. The primary issues on the minds of voters, according to ABC: 35% state of democracy, 31% the economy, 14% abortion, and 11% immigration. These seem to be the big four for voters this election cycle. According to responses at SAU, it seems that abortion is more heavily on the mind of young voters than other age groups.

8:53 PM — Ohio is slowly beginning to be called by news outlets. For the third straight election, Trump will win what many consider a “battleground” state. Each presidential election in Ohio has been more decisive in Trump’s favor than the last.

9:12 PM — North Carolina continues to be an interesting development. Trump won the state in 2020 by just around 100,000 votes. Right now he holds roughly a 200,000 vote lead. There are some important battleground counties still to report, but it’s looking very good for Trump to hold onto the state from 2020.

9:20 PM — Update on Georgia: Trump is looking really good right now. He’s up to 2.2 million votes in the state and flipped a pair of key battleground counties. 

9:34 PM — Virginia has been an interesting one to watch. It’s close right now, but things are trending in Harris’s favor. Although she looks like she will win, it looks like Republicans are going to take a chunk out of the Democrats’ hold on the state.

9:52 PM — Swing states are really close. I’m seeing conflicting reporting numbers in Michigan and Wisconsin. Looks like it’s going to be a late night, as expected.

10:30 PM — Pretty much down to battleground states now. No confirmed surprises yet on either side. Trump looks very likely to flip Georgia however. Arizona is very close. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan too early to tell. Democrats are going to need three of these four to win.

12:45 AM — No movement to speak of over the last several hours. It looks like this one will be going into at least tomorrow morning. 

1:06 AM — Georgia and Michigan have both been called for Trump, pretty much simultaneously. Add on Alaska and that puts Trump up to 266 out of the 270 necessary delegates. Democrats will have to win all remaining states to win, which it looks like will not happen. It’s all but official that Donald Trump will be our next president.

10:35 AM — Most people likely went to bed after Georgia and Michigan were called for Trump. Over the early morning hours, what we all knew to be true became official. Trump added Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to make it pretty much a clean sweep of battleground states. Arizona and Nevada are still counting but Trump is officially up to 295 delegates and will be our next president.

A look at the numbers

At the time of writing this, the total number of votes in this election sits at 142,569,116, according to NBC. Votes are still being counted, but this will be right around what we finish with when all counting is done. This is a noticeable dropoff from the 2020 election total of 155,506,321, also according to NBC. 

What’s noticeable about these numbers is that Donald Trump finished with roughly the same amount of votes he had in the 2020 election (74,222,960) as he did in this election at the time of writing (73,436,542). The significant losses were felt on the Democratic side. Harris currently sits at 69,134,740 votes, a drop of roughly 12 million votes that Joe Biden received in 2020. 

Exit polls

The Generation Z vote (ages 18-29) made up just 14% of the total vote in this year’s election, the lowest amongst any age demographic, according to NBC. Voters in this demographic voted most overwhelmingly for Harris, who won the voter split by 11 points over Trump. 

These splits help to contextualize Trump’s win. Although Trump lost the young vote by a sizable margin, this demographic was far outnumbered by Generation X voters (ages 45-64). Although the voter turnout was still amongst the highest since the turn of the 20th century, the smaller turnout of young voters hurt the Democrats this year.

In terms of the college-educated vote, this demographic once again swung in favor of the Democrats. Harris won the split of college graduate votes by 13 points. However, just like the Generation Z vote, the college graduate vote was far outnumbered by the non-college graduate vote. 

43 percent of the electorate was made up of college graduates compared to the 57 percent that were non-college graduates. Amongst these non-college graduate voters that made up a noticeable majority of voters, Trump won the split by 14 points. It is also worth pointing out that more college educated voters voted for third party candidates.

Conclusion

Turnout for this year’s election was once again historically good. 2020 was a noteworthy election due to the coronavirus pandemic that necessitated a historic number of mail-in ballots. 

2024, in comparison, can then be defined more by who didn’t vote as opposed to who did. While Trump maintained practically all of his voters from 2020, democrats lost almost the entire share of total voter differential.

As it pertains to SAU, student turnout remained as was observed from the on-campus polling location. Student turnout was strong, but was ultimately overshadowed most notably by the Generation X and non-college educated vote.
Donald Trump will officially take office on January 20. President Joe Biden has promised a peaceful transition of power.